Critical Frontier

Venture capital has entered a new era

Venture capital has entered a new era of bits + atoms investing — building, powering, and securing AI-defined hardware solutions

The rules for making things are fundamentally rewritten every few generations. Today, we stand at another such moment. Computing intelligence, synthetic materials, manufacturing automation, and cheap energy are converging to rewrite the economics of production for atoms-based solutions. Every major industry that defined past technological revolutions is poised to be remade — the next generation of industrial giants will emerge from those who recognize this shift and act boldly.

We back the founders building, powering, and securing critical infrastructure with software-defined hardware — where value accrues first — across energy, defense, and advanced manufacturing. Our expertise, insight, and due-diligence process is grounded in 27+ years of hedge-fund, private-equity, and early-stage venture investing experience.

Frontier technology focus areas

Three investment themes at the intersection of technology and the physical world.

01

Energy & Power

AI compute, advanced manufacturing, and electrification are driving a decade-plus period of energy demand vastly outstripping capacity — a supercycle — and a transformational restructuring of how power is generated, stored, and distributed.

02

Space & Defense

Western allied superiority has become vulnerable. Next-generation autonomy, sensing, and communications are paramount to maintaining the balance of power. Completely new AI-driven autonomous infrastructure, logistics, and artillery are needed to secure humanity from space to subsea.

03

Advanced Manufacturing & Materials

Value accrues to unit-economic superiority — the highest supply leverage is won through advanced materials, automated manufacturing, robotics, and software-defined production. Intelligence, automation, and cheap energy are converging to rewrite the economics of production.

Timing

Whole industries stay latent until the denominator falls.

A latent category is one where the engineering works, but the unit economics don’t — yet. As cost falls, more efficient supply doesn’t just satisfy demand — it then summons demand we couldn’t fathom.

The shift

New entrants who pair a set of cheaper inputs — digital-twin design, superalloy materials, additive parts manufacturing, AI-driven autonomous assembly, and iterated centralized-manufacturing learning rates — into a new process that rewrites the equation from scratch.

Threshold techno-economic value proposition

The frontier isn’t waiting on a scientific breakthrough — it’s waiting on its per-unit value proposition.

Every frontier technology can be defined by new denominators of cost that, when reengineered, deliver orders of magnitude of customer value.

$/watt

The compounding frontier is built on $/functional unit of value — the price of an outcome, set by the price of the input that binds it. Incumbents are burdened by the old cost physics; new entrants who pair a cheaper input with a new process rewrite the equation from scratch.

Energy

$/watt

The most measurable denominator (e.g., $/token/watt) — cheaper power lowers the floor under every other cost.

AI

$/token

A direct function of $/kWh. Asked what would most accelerate compute, Sam Altman answered in one word: “Electrons.”

Defense

$/intercept

A laser at cents of electricity per shot vs. a kinetic interceptor at tens of millions — a different cost regime, not a better missile.

Materials

$/ton

Processes done expensively with chemistry today become cheap when done with abundant electricity.

Space

$/kg-to-orbit

Propulsion, manufacturing, and life support downstream are all power problems wearing different clothes.

Any industry

$/functional unit

The marginal cost-of-value metric for any industry — the number that enables category creation and Jevons’ Paradox.

AI Physics Tech×Energy Tech×Materials Tech×Additive Mfg. Tech×Autonomous Production Systems=Compounding Orders of Magnitude Growth

The levers don’t add — they multiply.

SPV Portfolio · to-date

Founders forging the foundations of the frontier-technology economy.

High-temperature-superconductor commercial tokamak fusion reactors

1 MW highly portable / modular HTGR microreactor built for extreme environments

The only independent U.S. TRISO nuclear-fuel fabricator

10 MW sodium-cooled reactor for reliable behind-the-meter power for data centers and advanced manufacturing

25 MW, modular, emissions-free, supercritical-CO₂ natural-gas and steam turbines

AI-powered directed-energy laser defense platforms that protect troops, bases, and infrastructure from UAS drone and missile threats

Software-defined grid infrastructure built for high-voltage and a securitized grid

Coming soon

Providing value to founders

During our Seed round, Critical Frontier’s deep diligence and sharp techno-economic analysis thoroughly prepared us for future fundraising. They also opened doors through key investor introductions, grounding their advice in a broad financial perspective that spans from pre-seed to public equity.

Marcus Owenby CEO & Founder, Resolute Grid

Jon has a unique knack for deep diligence across techno-economics, competition analysis, and capital strategy. His work has been instrumental in refining our narrative for growth investors as we look to really scale.

Brad Hartwig Co-Founder & CEO, Arbor Energy

Jon has been instrumental in Aalo’s success, supporting us early, and helping us to shape our thesis through thorough diligence and understanding of the market. Would highly recommend working with Critical Frontier if given the chance.

Matt Loszak Co-Founder & CEO, Aalo Atomics

Jon’s experience across the full capital stack—from pre-seed to public equity—gives him a crucial vantage point and understanding of what companies building at the intersection of infrastructure and hardware actually need to scale.

Bob Mumgaard Co-Founder & CEO, Commonwealth Fusion Systems

Leadership

Jon Ylvisaker

Managing Partner

Jon brings 27+ years of investment experience across hedge-fund, private-equity, and venture-capital strategies — an Energy & Industrials specialist since 2002, with expertise spanning traditional and frontier solutions across fossil fuels, renewables, fission, fusion, geothermal, grid technologies, power electronics, mining technology, advanced materials, and advanced manufacturing.

At Crosscut Frontier, he built and led investments in Metox, Valar Atomics, Aalo Atomics, Radiant, Standard Nuclear, Arbor Energy, and Resolute Grid. For the 11 years prior, Jon was the founder and managing partner of Yield Capital Partners, a growth-infrastructure private-equity firm. He began his career in New York City in 1998, spending 14 years in the hedge-fund industry, most recently as portfolio manager of Wolfacre Global, a Tiger Management hedge fund.

Get in Touch

Ready to build the frontier?

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Santa Monica, CA 90401